Hillsborough, CA

A quick point of view for the relatively knowledgeable....The Xenon based Digital Cinema Initiative projectors (minus the servers) are interesting to me because I believe the high-end resi market is very small and doesn't have enough real demand for the sort of projector I'd like my customers to have. In the near-term, the large volume of digital cinema conversions represents the sort of backbone the market needs and is much more likely to support high-end home presentation than the sort of projector a big conference rental provider needs or even a large performance venue...Movies are movies...

High-end home theater market is very small - ~1000/units/yr worldwide
Replacing 35mm projectors with digital is larger - ~10000/units/yr
Putting DCI units in homes will be painful - noisy + hot.
All high-end residential vendors are vulnerable to market failure - even if recovery is now or imminent, they have 4-6 month revenue short-fall (and it's doesn't look right around the corner.)
Christie is leader in deployments (and is the leading incumbent provider of 35mm)
Christie is leader in supply of light engines to high-end home theater (Runco, Wolf, Digital Projection) and is likely to continue
Sony will likely be second to Christie in Digitial Cinema (AMC deal alone is 5K projectors)
This puts JVC + NEC in sketchy position...Barco has a solid commercial business and some nice deals and isn't out of the running.
All providers in the residential space are weak right now, so access/support to underlying tech provider is key to risk mitigation
Wolf still looks the best and I think has a viable business plan (if they can conclude a service deal with Christie).