DCI + High-end Projectors

A quick point of view for the relatively knowledgeable....The Xenon based Digital Cinema Initiative projectors (minus the servers) are interesting to me because I believe the high-end resi market is very small and doesn't have enough real demand for the sort of projector I'd like my customers to have. In the near-term, the large volume of digital cinema conversions represents the sort of backbone the market needs and is much more likely to support high-end home presentation than the sort of projector a big conference rental provider needs or even a large performance venue...Movies are movies...

• High-end home theater market is very small - ~1000/units/yr worldwide
• Replacing 35mm projectors with digital is larger - ~10000/units/yr
• Putting DCI units in homes will be painful - noisy + hot.
• All high-end residential vendors are vulnerable to market failure - even if recovery is now or imminent, they have 4-6 month revenue short-fall (and it's doesn't look right around the corner.)
• Christie is leader in deployments (and is the leading incumbent provider of 35mm)
• Christie is leader in supply of light engines to high-end home theater (Runco, Wolf, Digital Projection) and is likely to continue 
• Sony will likely be second to Christie in Digitial Cinema (AMC deal alone is 5K projectors)
• This puts JVC + NEC in sketchy position...Barco has a solid commercial business and some nice deals and isn't out of the running.
• All providers in the residential space are weak right now, so access/support to underlying tech provider is key to risk mitigation
• Wolf still looks the best and I think has a viable business plan (if they can conclude a service deal with Christie).